Forecasting China's steel price trends through inventory: demand determines decline

Last week (6.01-6.05), the national steel prices generally rose, and the increase in different regions varied. Among them, the North China market rose strongly, and other regions followed up positively. In the second half of the week, the market appeared to be divided, and some of them showed a high callback. The current domestic steel index rose sharply, and the cost index moved up significantly, indicating that the profit margin of steel mills has not expanded; steel futures surged back and down, affecting the sentiment of the steel spot market.

In terms of futures, the prices of black commodities varied: iron ore fluctuated at a high level, coke continued to rise, the hot coil showed a slight decline, and the rebar's gains slowed. Among them, the hot-rolled 2010 contract closed at 3527 yuan on Friday night, down 2 yuan/ton from last Friday night; the rebar RB2010 contract closed at 3616 yuan/ton on Friday night, up 54 yuan from last Friday night /Ton. From the perspective of the whole week, the raw material end (iron ore and coke) continues to be strong, the finished end (thread and hot coil) has been differentiated, and the futures market trend is somewhat blurred.

At present, the domestic steel market mentality tends to be cautious, and the downstream transactions are gradually slowing down. The good news is that the inventory decline is more obvious, the pressure on merchants has eased, and the leading steel mills have resisted the decline. , The intensity of demand may be weakened. The author believes that the sharp rise in steel prices this week is due to the market sentiment, and the incentive is that manufacturers are passing on costs. It is expected that the trend of steel prices will return to rationality next week. During the period, attention should be paid to: fluctuations in steel futures, changes in raw material prices, inventory Digestive strength